Measuring moonshot success

How to value progress on the promise of outsized impact

23 hrs ago • Tamara Carleton and William R. Cockayne

December 2025

What's the ARPA Model, and is Europe still in the warm-up phase?

Why Europe seems stuck in demo mode for building moonshots

Dec 15, 2025 • Tamara Carleton and William R. Cockayne

2

October 2025

Finding Visionary Managers

Moonshot-funding groups know vision is the core job requirement

Oct 16, 2025 • Tamara Carleton and William R. Cockayne

3

July 2025

Who is imagining real future utopias?

A moonshot often offers a vision of a better, brighter world ahead

Jul 29, 2025 • Tamara Carleton and William R. Cockayne

April 2025

How can teams handle the Ambiguity Curve?

Surfacing ambiguity early can help future decision making and moonshot choices

Apr 30, 2025 • Tamara Carleton and William R. Cockayne

1

March 2025

Visionary credit to Humane’s AI Pin

The team built a huge stepping stone for HP and other mobile teams

Mar 13, 2025 • Tamara Carleton and William R. Cockayne

2

February 2025

Funding moonshots at Breakthrough Energy Ventures

Three lessons from Eric Toone, BEV’s CTO and former ARPA-E director

Feb 4, 2025 • Tamara Carleton and William R. Cockayne

December 2024

Two steps for achieving big visions

How to embrace a moonshots mindset

Dec 18, 2024 • Tamara Carleton and William R. Cockayne

1

November 2024

The EU needs a Ministry of Moonshots

Our thoughts on Draghi’s recommendations for European competitiveness

Nov 10, 2024 • Tamara Carleton and William R. Cockayne

1

September 2024

Why do missions get conflated to moonshots?

Multiple, measurable missions stack up to achieve a moonshot

Sep 10, 2024 • Tamara Carleton and William R. Cockayne

August 2024

The Concept of Technology Readiness Level 0 (TRL 0)

From zero to hero: recognizing the hidden run-up to a radical tech innovation effort

Aug 11, 2024 • Tamara Carleton and William R. Cockayne

July 2024

How to pick the right ideas to bet on

From DARPA's classic Heilmeier Catechism to ARPA(H)eilmeier Questions to MacArthur Foundation’s Big Bets guidelines

Jul 1, 2024 • Tamara Carleton and William R. Cockayne