How to pick the right ideas to bet on
From DARPA's classic Heilmeier Catechism to ARPA(H)eilmeier Questions to MacArthur Foundation’s Big Bets guidelines
How do you pick the right ideas to bet on? What tools exist to help teams validate their instincts, especially those pursuing big visions and moonshots?
DARPA’s Heilmeier Catechism
A classic checklist has been DARPA’s Heilmeier Catechism, which has become popular in R&D press lately. This checklist has been a core part of DARPA’s innovation model for decades, allowing them to consider which high-risk opportunities to chase. As the agency says about itself:
DARPA operates on the principle that generating big rewards requires taking big risks. But how does the Agency determine what risks are worth taking?
George Heilmeier – a DARPA director who is featured in the National Inventors Hall of Fame for his pioneering work in liquid crystal displays – introduced a set of questions in the late 1970s. Those inside and outside DARPA use these questions to think through early risk/reward scenarios and evaluate potential proposals. These questions are straightforward:
DARPA Heilmeier Catechism
What are you trying to do? Articulate your objectives using absolutely no jargon.
How is it done today, and what are the limits of current practice?
What is new in your approach and why do you think it will be successful?
Who cares? If you are successful, what difference will it make?
What are the risks?
How much will it cost?
How long will it take?
What are the mid-term and final “exams” to check for success?
Why the Heilmeier Catechism works
DARPA program managers and teams applying for DARPA funding have devotedly used these Heilmeier questions since their introduction. Why do these eight “HQs” work, surviving the test of time? First, much work in blue-sky research and vision-led innovation, including at DARPA, is more of a sensibility than a strict system. The term catechism helps to capture this sensibility. By definition, a catechism serves as oral instruction or a learning introduction to someone new to a doctrine, often phrased as questions followed by answers to be memorized.
Second, while seemingly easy, the Heilmeier Catechism acts as a reality check for teams. Posed in everyday language, these questions serve as a forcing function for teams to substantiate the relevance and broader implications of their work. These questions embody the principle of Occam’s razor. By capturing what is essential – before all the pitch slides and financial spreadsheets – the Heilmeier Catechism begins to move teams from imagination to the hard work of making the idea real.
Adaption by ARPA-H
Moreover, these questions have influenced other moonshot groups. Consider ARPA-H, a newly formed government agency focused on medical breakthroughs and transformative health solutions. In 2023, ARPA-H adapted the Heilmeier Catechism from DARPA, cleverly remaking it their own by calling it as ARPA(H)eilmeier Questions, and adapting for a medical context. ARPA-H also documented the hidden questions behind their HQs, which provide a general guide for developing a clear program concept. We marked their changes and additions in italics font from the original DARPA set:
ARPA(H)eilmeier Questions:
What are you trying to do?
Articulate your objectives using absolutely no jargon.What health problem are you trying to solve?How is it done today, and what are the
limits of current practicelimitations of present approaches?What is new in your approach and why do you think it will be successful at this time?
Who cares? If you are successful, what difference will it make?
What are the risks?
How long will
itthe program take?How much will
itthe program cost?What are the mid-term and final “exams” to check for success?
To ensure equitable access to all people, how will cost, accessibility, and user experience be addressed?
How might this program be misperceived or misused (and how can you prevent that from happening)?
Why do you think ARPA-H made these changes? In a public statement, the US administration explained that while DARPA offers an “excellent inspiration” for ARPA-H, it is not a perfect model for biomedical and health research. Many feel ARPA-H’s work is further complicated by human behavior, medical regulations, and biological systems compared to DARPA’s world of defense. Others in the health community – like the authors in this opinion piece – argue that ARPA-H needs these extra safeguards, plus even more to prevent major biosecurity accidents like the COVID-19 pandemic (incidentally, whose mRNA vaccines came from DARPA work).
Other Variations
Other variations exist. One example comes from VTT, Finland’s national institute for applied research. In 2019, VTT started a deep-tech incubation program called LaunchPad, and internal teams often start with a commercialization workshop that addresses similar Heilmeier questions as follows:
VTT LaunchPad workshop questions:
What is the bold global impact that could be achieved in 10 years based on the technology you have developed?
How to achieve the long-term impact?
Who has the most burning need?
Where should the project be in 3 years to be on the desired development path?
Who should be involved in building the dream and who are the ones who could help?
Another example comes from the MacArthur Foundation, which has pursued multiple Big Bets as “time-limited investments in grantmaking with the potential for transformative change” in the past decade – funding $1.05 billion to 483 nonprofits to date according to one analysis. Their Big Bets approach has followed a set of guiding questions that considers ambition, boldness, and timeliness among other aspects.
What questions or tools have you found most helpful in your work?
We always love to hear from our readers, so send us an idea or request any time to hello@buildingmoonshots.com.
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