Based on a recent reader poll, we heard many of you would like to (a) read more about moonshot examples in the news and (b) how to do a specific moonshot way. We will address both topics in this issue!
Maybe you need to track technology breakthroughs for strategic or competitive reasons. Maybe you are trying to understand who the major players are or are personally curious. Whatever the reason, the actual process of tracking tech breakthroughs can feel tricky – especially when you don’t know the tech well.
One technology dominating industry discussions and news headlines lately is generative artificial intelligence (genAI), so let’s use this tech as our example. How can you put the recent news and hype surrounding AI in perspective? Is there an easy way to help your team distill some insights for planning?
The short answer is yes. One tool we recommend is the Four Horizons (4H) model, which we describe in our book Building Moonshots, plus discuss in the last issue on the types of ideas to capture when starting moonshots.
Rely on respected data sources
Ideally, you will draw from a mix of data sources for the 4H model. One regular data source we use is news articles from leading respected publications. (We mean that these sources aim for a fairly-weighted bias and which many leaders frequently trust as credible.) By synthesizing news sources, you can gauge the dominant point of view for any topic or technology. This will give you a baseline.
What are respected sources in the English-speaking world? In business press, top news sources are The Economist, Financial Times, and Bloomberg. In the trade press, consider IEEE Spectrum, MIT Technology Review, and Government Technology. In science, go-to sources as a start are Scientific American, Science News, and Science Robotics.
Across various news sources, skim the headlines to quickly gather relevant updates. Then read the articles, seeking keywords within the text that indicate a technology’s development stage. Reporters and experts often offer clues, helping you to determine which development stage and the corresponding innovation horizon. Phrases such as “available” and “profitable” indicate current solutions that sit within horizon 1 (H1). Phrases such as “releasing” and “new market” usually indicate H2, “in the lab” for H3, and “speculative” for H4, and so forth.
The state of AI in early 2020
We worked with an international food company in 2020 to develop an innovation roadmap. The company’s strategy team wanted to better understand AI as one of a dozen technologies that they were tracking having strong potential impact for their business. We started with an overview of the AI landscape.
See the above snapshot of some major news headlines from early 2020, organized by innovation horizon as such:
In H1, you can see recently announced AI applications for shopping and recruiting.
In H2, news focuses more on emerging AI efforts in youth education and developing economies.
In H3, news headlines discuss AI research in areas like facial recognition and network architecture – including growing discussions about a Google Research “Attention” paper.
At the border of H3 and H4 are DARPA funding grants to push the frontier of AI. At the far edge of H4 are promises of AI to help humans find true love.
A key milestone in the field of AI occurred on June 11, 2020, when OpenAI released an open-source model for commercial use. This moved a research project from H3 experimentation closer to H2 market solutions. Suddenly, AI could be used by managers who did not have specialized computer science training, based on a “text in, text out” interface for arguably any English-based task.
The state of AI today
Fast forward to today. You can apply the same news reading and 4H mapping to track the current state of AI. Here is a snapshot of major news headlines from a few weeks ago – and before the recent drama regarding OpenAI’s co-founder Sam Altman.
Our Japanese colleagues across academia, industry, and government also want to better understand the AI landscape. Japan is known for its pioneering work in batteries, robotics, hydrogen energy, and other breakthrough tech. We created a joint mapping of AI, showing news headlines from respected Japanese sources at the top and English-speaking sources at the bottom. Just the start of this mapping exercise generated provocative discussion.
We leave it to you to try your own version for your preferred breakthrough tech… let us know how it goes!
Wander and listen
This section highlights some examples of moonshot thinking and doing all around us and links them to specific Moonshot Ways from our Building Moonshots book. (Note that indented text highlighted by a blue line are direct quotes from each article.)
Bloomberg
November 21, 2023
Eric Schmidt’s Think Tank Urges Moonshot Chase to Keep US Ahead
The US must pursue strategic technological breakthroughs, such as a working quantum computer by 2028, to stay ahead of rivals like China and ensure its national security… “This action plan combines bold technology ‘moonshots’ with organizational changes and policies that would position the United States for durable advantage.”
▶️ Moonshot Way 18: Be visionary
Financial Times
November 22, 2023
AI and quantum research at centre of UK science and tech announcements
… the government revealed five “moonshot missions” for its £2.5bn national quantum strategy.
▶️ Moonshot Way 4: Fund for breakthroughs
▶️ Moonshot Way 37: Invest in the future ecosystem
Financial Times
November 21, 2023
Northvolt in new sodium-ion battery breakthrough
Swedish start-up has developed an energy storage technology with no critical minerals including lithium which could minimise reliance on China… It is hoping to provide the first samples to customers next year, and would reach full-scale production by the end of the decade.
▶️ Moonshot Way 24: Be responsible visionaries
▶️ Moonshot Way 35: Double down on breakthroughs
The Economist
November 16, 2023
To supercharge science, first experiment with how it is funded
A growing cadre of scientists, policymakers and philanthropists hopes to revamp science funding… The first step is to try new things. More money could fund promising people rather than specific projects, encouraging researchers to take risks.
▶️ Moonshot Way 54: Play an infinite game
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