A case for computing moonshots
Does the US need federal funding and moonshot managers for next-gen computing?
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In our last issue, we hinted at a compelling call to action put out recently by the Special Competitive Studies Project (SCSP), a group funded by tech billionaire Eric Schmidt. Reported by Bloomberg and others, SCSP argues that the US must pursue strategic technological breakthroughs across the compute stack, such as a working quantum computer by 2028, to ensure American security.
The SCSP report stresses the urgent need for moonshot thinking in next-gen computing, stating:
In the long run, supplying ever-increasing compute demand will require revolutionary, not evolutionary, advances in post-Mooreâs Law paradigms. Novel compute paradigms are emerging that require us to fundamentally reimagine how computation takes place. [our emphasis added]
They propose a national action plan, outlining six major steps that can build a âflourishing atoms-to-architectures innovation pipelineâ â starting with the launch of âNational Moonshot Programsâ geared for computing breakthroughs, each managed by a âNational Mission Managerâ. (We can recommend a certain book for building moonshots to these mission managers!)
Two staff members underscored the SCSP reportâs points in an opinion piece in MIT Technology Review this week, stating that only the Fed offers the âconvening power and R&D dollars to help these novel systems achieve scale.â
SCSPâs plan goes in hand with a similar national call to action by Fei-Fei Li and John Etchemendy, founding directors of the Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence, published in the Wall Street Journal earlier this month. They make the case that the US needs a moonshot mentality for AI led by the public sector, stating:
In short, to effect change we need a moonshot mentality. In 2024, we need the government to galvanize a broad investment in AI that reflects Americaâs bold innovative spirit, backed by strong public-sector infrastructure.
Do you agree that the US needs to provide an institutional home for computing moonshots? And if youâre not an American, how do you feel about this argument?
P.S. If you havenât yet, check out IBMâs video of its mystical unveiling of the IBM Quantum System Two this month, which embodies their vision of the high-performance systems for the future: quantum-centric supercomputing.
đ°Moonshots in the news
This section highlights some recent news articles of moonshot thinking and doing, plus links them to specific Moonshot Ways from the Building Moonshots book. (Note that indented text highlighted by a blue line are direct quotes from each article.)
Meta
December 18, 2023
Metaâs two long-term bets on technologies of the future â AI and the metaverse â each took major steps forward in 2023. And more importantly, they began to intersect.
â¶ïž Moonshot Way 18: Be visionary
Financial Times
December 29, 2023
Blue sky ideas: deep sea battery minerals attract growing sunk costs
Seabed mining is for intrepid and deep-pocketed investors only⊠There are several hurdles to commercial production, which could begin in the second half of this decade.
â¶ïž Moonshot Way 4: Fund for breakthroughs
Seeking Alpha
December 22, 2023
$6 Trillion Black Swan Everyone Forgot
Commercial real estate poses a significant threat to markets in 2024, with over $6 trillion in debt outstanding. Regional banks are particularly exposed to this risk, as they hold half of the outstanding commercial real estate debt⊠Could this be the black swan event markets aren't pricing in?
â¶ïž Moonshot Way 8: Collect a menagerie
Tor
December 22, 2023
20 Optimistic Fantasies to Brighten Your TBR Stack
But when the days get darker and colder, sometimes we reach for something thatâs more⊠optimistic. Thatâs when we turn to cozy, compassionate, and deeply human stories, like the 20 titles below!
â¶ïž Moonshot Way 6: Be an optimist
đ« Download your free poster of all 50+ Moonshot Ways
Download a free poster showing all 50+ Moonshot Ways that you can display as personal inspiration, team reminder, or cultural invective.
(print it big on US 11x17 or A3 sized paper)
đDownload your free copy of the seminal Foresight Playbook
If you havenât yet, also download your free copy of the playbook that started it all: our Playbook for Strategic Foresight and Innovation. Developed from the first decade of courses, research, and insights from Stanfordâs University Foresight program, and generously sponsored by the government of Finlandâs innovation agency, these foresight tools and mindsets are easy to adopt, quick to apply, and used in thousands of the worldâs leading innovation-seeking organizations. (Look for new playbooklets in 2024!)